Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
